Uncertainty and corporate resilience: analysis of the wui, business confidence index, and strategic factors in ukraine during martial law

This article examines the impact of war-related high uncertainty on the resilience of Ukrainian companies, integrating data from global uncertainty indicators (WUI), the Ukrainian Business Confidence Index, and the results of a strategic PEST and SWOT analysis of the national macro-environment in 2025. The study argues that martial law creates a chronically high-uncertainty environment in which traditional strategic planning models lose their effectiveness, increasing the importance of adaptive, proactive, and continuous crisis management. Empirical analysis demonstrates that the WUI is insensitive to Ukrainian events due to the country’s low representation in global information sources, necessitating the combination of global and local indicators. The dynamics of the Business Confidence Index reflect a state of “fragile stabilization”: short-term positive fluctuations do not offset major structural risks related to the war, energy instability, logistical constraints, and low investment activity. Based on the PEST analysis, the research identifies the key political, economic, social, and technological factors shaping the external business environment in 2025: security threats, volatile macroeconomic dynamics, workforce shortages, digitalization, and growing cyber risks. The SWOT analysis highlights internal strengths and vulnerabilities of enterprises as well as external opportunities and threats that determine their viability during wartime. The study shows that the fundamental prerequisites for resilience include scenario planning, diversification of suppliers and markets, resource buffering, digital transformation, enhanced cybersecurity, and human-capital management under chronic stress. The findings confirm that a new paradigm of crisis management is emerging in Ukraine, in which adaptability, rapid decision-making, and organizational resilience are core managerial norms. Companies capable of swiftly adjusting their business models and operating effectively amid extreme uncertainty demonstrate higher stability and stronger development potential – even within a wartime economy. Keywords: organizational resilience, company viability, crisis management, adaptive management, uncertainty, business trust, strategic factors