An Evaluation of PV Generation Intra-day Forecast using Rolling UC Simulation

Growing installed capacity of variable renewable energy (VRE) in Japan makes technologies to deal with their large fluctuation and uncertainty more important. We focused on forecast for VRE generation out of those technologies, and developed power system operation simulator to evaluate its quality from the viewpoints of economy and security. The results of simulations showed that the annual operational cost decreased by 16 billion yen in Tohoku-Tokyo merged area in 2040 if our intra-day PV generation forecast was available, in comparison with the case in which only day-ahead forecast was available. Furthermore, the quality of PV generation confidence interval, which defines long-term reserve requirement, had larger impact on the economy than that of PV generation value forecast, in our settings.