Strategic Point Coverage for Scorpion Accident Care: Methodological Considerations and Application in Sao Paulo State, Brazil

Scorpionism is a public health concern in warm regions, particularly affecting children under 10 years old. Timely treatment with antivenom, provided free by the Brazilian Unified Health System, at strategic care points (PEs) is crucial to prevent avoidable deaths. Our study focused on the Sao Paulo state (SP), which has the largest population in Brazil. The objectives were to adapt a network analysis method suited to SPs context; to assess the efficiency of the SP PE network coverage, considering the 90-minute response time; and to determine the ideal number of vials to be stored at each PE. After adapting the healthcare network analysis, we applied spatial coverage models to evaluate the adequacy of PE response times. We also estimated the demand for antivenom vials at each PE based on Notifiable Diseases Information System data from 2021 to 2023, which is currently limited to the state level. We identified 12 areas lacking coverage, of which only one was suitable for a new PE. The estimated serum requirements aligned with SP's current distributions. However, the estimation carried out according to the PEs has the advantage of reducing the risk of antivenom shortages, especially in emergencies, thus ensuring timely care to prevent avoidable deaths. Our adapted method and PE serum estimates can enhance the scorpion sting care system by supporting geographic planning and optimizing resource allocation. Moreover, these findings and methodologies have potential applicability to other Brazilian regions and warm countries facing similar challenges, contributing to improved access and outcomes for scorpionism victims.