Predicting forestry development in Guizhou Province, China, based on the VAR model

This paper addresses the prediction of forestry development in Guizhou Province using the Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model. It constructs a VAR model to analyze the relationship between forestry investment growth rate and per capita GDP growth rate from 2000 to 2022, and forecasts the output and production value of forestry in the region. The results show that the interaction between the per capita GDP growth rate and the forestry investment growth rate weakens over time. Furthermore, the growth rate of forestry investment increasingly contributes to the per capita GDP growth rate, while the output of most forestry products is expected to increase, with exceptions like oil tung seeds and Chinese pistachio seeds, which are forecasted to decline. This paper offers valuable insights into the dynamic relationship between forestry investment and economic growth, providing forecasts for the forestry sector’s contribution to Guizhou's economy in the coming years.