Sector-detailed urban Greenhouse Gas Emission Futures derived from the ScenarioMIP-CMIP7 ensemble

Required emission reductions for reaching the goals of the Paris Agreement have been extensively analysed in scenarios of integrated assessment modeling. However, the contribution of urban areas in aggregate, by world region and by city type, remains underexplored. Here, we develop a spatially explicit framework to downscale global emissions pathways to urban areas, differentiated by region and city type. Ambitious climate change mitigation, could deliver 21 GtCO₂e of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions in urban areas by 2050 relative to continuation of current policies and trends, primarily by transitioning away from fossil fuels for electricity and heat supply, deep decarbonization of industry, and mitigation action in the transportation and buildings sectors. Mitigation potential is concentrated in established cities as well as in rapidly growing cities globally, reflecting their high current per-capita emission levels. Various regions of Asia are characterized by high urbanization, and therefore account for a dominant share of global urban emissions and their reduction potential. These findings underscore the central role of cities in achieving global climate targets and highlight the importance of differentiated mitigation strategies across regions and city types.