GROSS REGIONAL PRODUCT AS AN INDICATOR OF FINANCIAL STABILITY OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT AMID ECONOMIC MODERNIZATION: THE CASE OF THE KARAGANDA REGION

Ensuring the financial stability of the regions in the context of global economic instability and changes in the modernization of the economy of Kazakhstan has become the main factor of sustainable development. The objective of the study is to develop a methodological approach to assessing and forecasting the financial sustainability of regional development in the context of economic modernization using the Karaganda region as a case study and to develop practical recommendations. The application of methods of analysis and synthesis, comparative and structural analysis, and dynamic analysis of socio-economic indicators made it possible to use econometric modeling methods to forecast GRP. Within the framework of a unified statistical and econometric approach, a linear trend model of the GRP dynamics of the Karaganda region was created based on official statistical data for 2010-2024, estimated by the least square’s method. The resulting model was used to generate point and interval forecast estimates of GRP for 2025-2027. The forecast results indicate a continued, stable, upward trend in regional economic development; even the lower bound of the 95% confidence interval reflects positive dynamics for the indicator. Furthermore, as the forecast horizon increases, the width of the confidence interval widens, indicating an increase in uncertainty and confirming the scenario-based, predictable nature of the forecast estimate with a limited amount of initial data. The research results can be used by state and local government bodies to adjust territorial development strategies, formulate investment policies, and improve the efficiency of budgetary resource use. Keywords: modernization, financial stability, strategic management, regional economy, gross regional product, forecasting.