Beyond the postcard: Assessing the impact of social progress on the competitiveness of Brazilian destinations

This study investigates the relationship between social progress (SP) and tourism competitiveness (TC) across 508 Brazilian destinations. It seeks to determine the extent to which social well-being acts as an antecedent to competitive performance and whether this relationship is sensitive to the population size of the municipalities. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) was employed, utilizing data from the Social Progress Index and multidimensional indicators from official tourism databases. SP exerts a positive and significant impact on TC (β = 0.708), explaining 65.4% of its variability. The relationship is a robust predictor and remains invariant to the destination's size. However, smaller municipalities exhibited higher sensitivity (β = 0.801), suggesting that their competitiveness is more vulnerable to fluctuations in basic social indicators. The study consolidates social well-being as a critical frontier for tourism development.