Achieving Green Goals: How Does the “Made in China 2025” Pilot Policy Affect Carbon Emission Efficiency?

Utilizing panel data from prefecture-level and above cities in China, this study conceptualizes the “Made in China 2025” pilot policy as a quasi-natural experiment and applies a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) methodology to assess the policy’s impact on carbon emission efficiency. The findings reveal several key insights: (1) The “Made in China 2025” pilot policy significantly enhances carbon emission efficiency, a result robust to various checks, including placebo tests. (2) Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the policy markedly improves carbon emission efficiency in resource-based and larger cities, with less pronounced effects in non-resource-based and smaller cities. (3) Non-linear regression analysis suggests that the policy’s benefits are more substantial in cities with higher initial levels of carbon emission efficiency, whereas its positive impacts are less evident in cities with lower efficiency levels. (4) Spatial effect analysis demonstrates that the policy not only boosts local carbon emission efficiency but also exerts a significant demonstrative effect on neighboring cities. (5) Mechanism analysis reveals that the policy primarily enhances carbon emission efficiency through the promotion of green technological innovation and the facilitation of industrial upgrading, without invoking a reinforced environmental regulation mechanism during the study period. (6) Extension analysis indicates the presence of regional convergence in carbon emission efficiency. While the “Made in China 2025” pilot policy aids in elevating efficiency levels, it does not actively foster convergence. The outcomes of this study offer substantial theoretical underpinnings for the implementation of industrial policies and the formulation of urban low-carbon development strategies.