Unequal Heat Exposure across Wales: A Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Socioeconomic Deprivation

This study examines spatial and temporal inequalities in outdoor heat exposure across Wales and their association with socioeconomic deprivation. Using MODIS-derived land surface temperature (2010– 2023), the Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation and spatio-temporal weighted regression, the analysis explicitly identifies where and when deprivation–heat relationships diverge from national patterns. Results show consistently higher heat exposure in more deprived areas, strong spatial clustering, and pronounced spatial non-stationarity, highlighting place-specific heat inequalities missed by global models.