Managing uncertainty through middle actors in energy entrepreneurship and innovation: Insights from Israel and the United States

• Energy-tech actors operate in volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) environments. • Middle actors help navigate VUCA in energy innovation ecosystems. • Israeli and U.S. cases show distinct middle-out strategies under VUCA. • AI-assisted cross-case analysis maps enabling, mediating, and aggregating strategies. • Study flags risks: fragmentation, hype cycles, and crowding in innovation ecosystems. This paper examines how meso-level actors — organizations situated between governments and entrepreneurs — aim to navigate conditions of volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA) in energy innovation ecosystems. Drawing on the Middle-Out Perspective (MOP), we analyze the roles of three actors in two innovation-rich yet structurally distinct contexts: Israel's Ignite the Spark and EnergyCom, and the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) Innovation & Entrepreneurship Center. Through structured AI-assisted qualitative cross-case comparison, we map their publicly articulated strategies across three modes of influence: enabling startups and ecosystem actors, mediating between stakeholders, and aggregating knowledge and resources. Our findings show how these actors are positioned to address uncertainty and ambiguity by seeking to clarify policy signals, enhance institutional coordination, and create entry pathways for emerging innovators. They also aim to address operational complexity and market volatility by orchestrating collaborative networks and offering non-state sources of legitimacy. While such activities are intended to strengthen the conditions for innovation system resilience, we also identify possible unintended consequences, including fragmentation, hype-driven cycles, and crowding highlighting the double-edged nature of these strategies. The paper contributes to theory by refining the middle-out framework in high-uncertainty contexts and extending VUCA scholarship through a granular analysis of meso-level influence.