How Does New Quality Productive Forces Empower the Synergistic Enhancement of Urban Pollution Reduction and Carbon Mitigation?

Drawing on panel data from 242 Chinese cities spanning 2011–2022, this paper explores whether and how new quality productive forces facilitate the joint achievement of pollution reduction and carbon mitigation goals. The evidence confirms a positive empowering effect of these forces on urban synergistic performance. Mediation effect analysis indicates that this empowerment primarily operates through green technology innovation, resource allocation effects, and digital financial inclusion. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the synergistic effect of new quality productive forces on pollution reduction and carbon mitigation is more pronounced in ordinary cities, non-resource-based cities, and regions with higher levels of digital infrastructure. Grouping based on the two-dimensional framework of "digital foundation-environmental regulation" demonstrates that the empowering effect of new quality productive forces is strongest under "digital-driven" and "dual-high" scenarios, while it is limited under the "pressure-induced" scenario. This reflects the ineffectiveness of governance models that rely solely on administrative pressure without adequate digital capacity support. This study provides empirical evidence for understanding the green connotations and regional heterogeneity of new quality productive forces, and offers policy insights for differentially promoting urban green transformation.