SCENARIO FORECASTS OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN METALLURGICAL PRODUCTION DURING THE POST-WAR RECONSTRUCTION OF UKRAINE

The steel industry of Ukraine has been facing a number of significant challenges over the last couple of years. The needs of the steel industry include post-war capacity retrofits using the “build back better” principle, opening free trade with the European Union (EU) market, and the prospects for further integration into the EU. This integration enables dialogue regarding sector development, the identification of relevant technology pathways, energy needs, and total greenhouse gases emissions changes. The following pathways to produce steel are analysed in the present paper: blast furnace with basic oxygen furnace or open-hearth furnace, electric arc furnace using mainly scrap as a raw material, and direct iron reduction with subsequent steel smelting in an electric arc furnace using both natural gas and hydrogen as reducing agents. The analysis covers two production scenarios: 10 mln t and 20 mln t of steel per year. Both scenarios, under the defined technological transformation pathways, allow for the achievement of Ukraine’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution targets for 2030. However, reaching carbon neutrality by 2050 will require the implementation of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies or offsetting mechanisms. The study emphasizes a significant transformation in the structure of energy consumption – from coal and coke to electricity, natural gas, biomass, and eventually hydrogen – which necessitates cross-sectoral coordination and strategic planning for the development of clean energy. Among the changes in energy needs, the key long-term challenge is ensuring additional volumes of fossil-free electricity. To identify the appropriate pathway for electricity sector development, the complex issue of cross-sectoral coordination between the metallurgical and energy industries must be addressed, along with the alignment of relevant policies and economic forecasts. The results obtained contribute to the development of decarbonization policies for Ukraine’s metallurgical sector, taking into account energy security and economic feasibility. Bibl. 29, Tab. 1, Fig. 7.