Modelling the Present and Future Distribution of Vormela peregusna in the Westernmost Part of Its Range—Relevance for Conservation in the Face of Climate Change

Our knowledge of the marbled polecat (Vormela peregusna), a vulnerable mustelid species, is inadequate and fragmentary. Developing effective conservation strategies is significantly hampered by a lack of information on its distribution and preferred habitats. This research uses 77 recent species’ presence records to model its current distribution and predict its near-future distribution across a significant part of its European range under two climate change scenarios. Regions characterized by arid conditions and low elevations exhibit the highest suitability, but intensive agriculture causes habitat degradation and fragmentation across significant portions of these areas. Under the moderate future climate scenario (SSP2-4.5), the model predicts an increase in suitability across extensive parts of hilly areas, alongside a reduction in regions such as the sub-Mediterranean zones. This change is mainly attributable to rising winter temperatures. The pessimistic scenario (SSP5-8.5) forecasts a considerable decline in suitability, driven by anticipated high summer temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns. The territories crucial for the prolonged preservation of V. peregusna in the Balkans and the importance of preserving landscape heterogeneity in agricultural areas were highlighted. The resulting distribution predictions provide useful information to assist in the development of region-specific measures for better monitoring and conservation of the marbled polecat.