THE DIGITAL EURO IN THE CONTEXT OF THE EVOLUTION OF FINANCE

The digital euro is a European Central Bank initiative to introduce an electronic form of central bank money for public use. This study analyses the potential impact of the digital euro on consumer behaviour at point-of-sale transactions within the eurozone, applying a scenario modelling approach with three adoption levels: low, moderate, and aggressive. Baseline data are derived from the ECB’s SPACE 2024 survey. The model forecasts the displacement of cash and partial substitution of card payments by the digital euro, with the aggressive scenario reaching a 45% share of POS transactions over a 10-year horizon. The analysis incorporates sceptical viewpoints concerning realistic assumptions, country-specific cultural preferences, and the private sector’s strategic response. Results suggest that the digital euro could significantly reshape payment structures, although the speed and scale of adoption will depend upon regulatory frameworks, technological infrastructure, and incentives for both consumers and merchants.