Impacts of Off‐Season Irrigated Wheat Cultivation on Wetland‐Linked Environmental and Livelihood Systems in the Central Highlands of Ethiopia

ABSTRACT Wheat is a staple crop central to Ethiopia's food security and agricultural economy. Since 2021, the government has promoted off‐season, irrigation‐based wheat cultivation to raise productivity and reduce import dependence. This study evaluates the effects of this initiative on agricultural performance, household food security and wetland ecosystem dynamics in the Central Highlands of Ethiopia. Using longitudinal data from 350 households in districts where irrigation expanded into seasonal wetlands, propensity score matching and difference‐in‐differences models were applied to estimate causal impacts. Results indicate that off‐season irrigation increased wheat yields by 108%, net household income by 128% and doubled cropping intensity. Food security improved markedly, with a 68% increase in the Food Consumption Score and greater dietary diversity. However, environmental trade‐offs emerged: Livestock holdings declined by 33%, water‐fetching time rose by 66% and reported water shortages increased by 46 percentage points. Households also noted substantial losses of communal grazing land, rising water conflicts and accelerating wetland degradation. These findings highlight the importance of integrated land and water management that promotes efficient irrigation technologies, community‐based governance and livelihood diversification to balance food security gains with wetland conservation and long‐term sustainability.