Macroeconomic Determinants of Non-Communicable Disease and Mental Health Outcomes in Jamaica: A Time-Series Analysis, 1990–2025

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and mental health disorders pose a significant and growing public health burden in Jamaica, yet the influence of macroeconomic conditions on these outcomes remains underexplored. This study employs a longitudinal time-series design to investigate the association between key economic indicators, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, unemployment rate, and inflation, and NCD prevalence, NCD-related mortality, and mental health outcomes, including depression, anxiety, and suicide, over the period 1990–2025. Secondary data were obtained from national and international sources, including the Ministry of Health & Wellness, Jamaica, the Statistical Institute of Jamaica, the Pan American Health Organization, and the World Bank. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (ARIMAX) models were applied to assess both immediate and lagged effects of macroeconomic variables, controlling for urbanisation, population growth, and healthcare access. Results indicate that higher unemployment is significantly associated with increased NCD prevalence (β = 0.415, p = 0.004) and depression prevalence (β = 0.082, p = 0.010), while GDP per capita exerts a protective effect on NCD prevalence (β = -0.0025, p = 0.021). Inflation is positively related to anxiety prevalence (β = 0.056, p = 0.012), and lagged economic variables reveal delayed impacts on NCD-related mortality. These findings highlight the critical role of macroeconomic stability in shaping both physical and mental health outcomes and underscore the need for integrated policy responses. Implications include aligning economic policy with public health strategies, enhancing social protection mechanisms, and integrating mental health screening within NCD care programmes. The study provides robust, empirical evidence from a small island developing state, offering actionable insights for policymakers and contributing to the broader literature on the social determinants of health.