Assessment of structural changes in land use and risks of sustainable agricultural production at the regional level

The article examines structural shifts in cropland use and their impact on the sustainability of agricultural production at the regional level. The aim of the study is to develop a methodological approach for assessing structural changes in land use, taking into account the degree of land potential utilization and the manageability of crop structure. Based on official statistical data, author’s indicators of structural shift intensity, land potential utilization and an integrated structural-land risk index are calculated. A typology of regions according to the level of structural risk is developed, and a correlation analysis of the relationship between structural and land factors and agricultural sustainability is conducted. The results demonstrate that unrealized land potential is the key source of structural-land risk, while moderate structural shifts combined with high land use manageability contribute to greater stability of agricultural production. The proposed methodological framework can be used in the development of regional agricultural policies and land involvement programs. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the development of a comprehensive methodology for assessing structural and land risks, which is based on the integration of indicators of structural shifts in cultivated areas, the sustainability of economic results, and the degree of realization of land potential. Unlike existing approaches that focus primarily on analyzing the dynamics of crop structure, the proposed methodology allows for identifying the nonlinear impact of structural transformations on the sustainability of agricultural production and creating a typology of regions that takes into account hidden land risks.