Resource Strategy and State Formation in Ancient Japan: Chemical Reinterpretation of Mizu naku shite Ame wo Tsukuru, Spatial Statistics of Mononobe Shrines, and Reexamination of Chronology(辰砂資源の調達構造と古代国家形成モデルの再構築 ——「無水造飴」の化学的解釈・物部神社の空間統計・年代論の再検証)

This working paper reconstructs the formation of the early Yamato polity (3rd–4th century CE, Japan) using physical laws, chemistry, spatial statistics, and chronometric analysis as external criteria independent of textual interpretation — a methodological departure from the text-centric tradition of Japanese ancient history. Four independent lines of evidence converge on a single model: (1) Chemical analysis: The phrase "mizu naku shite ame wo tsukuru" (無水造飴, "making ame without water") in the Nihon Shoki (720 CE) is argued to describe mercury smelting (HgS + O₂ → Hg + SO₂↑), not conventional food preparation. Three physicochemical conditions — anhydrous reaction, liquid product generation, and fish toxicity — are satisfied exclusively by the mercury smelting interpretation. (2) Spatial statistics: Mononobe clan shrines (n=17) are significantly closer to ancient mines than two independent control groups: topographically matched mountain shrines (n=18; p=0.0116, Cohen's d=0.776) and provincial chief shrines Ichinomiya (n=51; p=0.0014, d=0.784). 64.7% of Mononobe shrines lie within 30 km of a mine vs. 31.4% of Ichinomiya (2.1×). Results are robust to conservative sensitivity analysis (n=15). (3) Radiocarbon chronology: Sakamoto (2022) reports Amodel=16% for a Bayesian model built on the Harunari Model's stratigraphic constraints calibrated with IntCal20 — far below the OxCal international threshold of ≥60%. Independent replication by the author confirms Amodel=19.3%. A revised Bayesian model incorporating firm stratigraphic anchors achieves Amodel=64.9%, with Hashihaka Kofun converging on AD 280s–320s, overturning the 240–260 CE hypothesis. A Tokyo High Court ruling (August 5, 2025) determined that the raw dendrochronological data underlying JCAL are outside institutional custody, rendering independent verification institutionally impossible. (4) Phonological analysis (integrated from Miyazaki 2025): Under the Baxter-Sagart (2014) Old Chinese reconstruction, both 臺 and 壹 readings eliminate "Yamatai = Kinai Yamato" on phonological grounds, while 壹 (*ʔit) positively selects Kyushu Yamato (山門/Kumamoto region). Conclusion: The early Yamato polity is reinterpreted as a "resource-management polity" — a strategic Technology M&A combining the Mononobe clan's metallurgical infrastructure with the incoming royal lineage's mercury smelting expertise. Stability was maintained through technological knowledge monopoly rather than military force (Pax Makimuku(纒向)). The polity's emergence is positioned around 301 CE (sexagenary year Kanoto-tori, 辛酉). All shrine/mine coordinate data, distance calculations, Python analysis code (Mann-Whitney U, Cohen's d), and OxCal verification code are fully published in appendices, ensuring 100% reproducibility. This paper integrates and extends the author's prior phonological analysis: Miyazaki (2025), DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18065799. 📄 Full text (HTML version with all appendices): https://masahiromiyazaki.github.io/-ancient-history-of-japan/cinnabar_paper/index.html